Should i get ready for 2017
The stress in the retail sector that has triggered a string of bankruptcies this year is unlikely to get much better in The September trailing month retail default rate stood at 7. The retail sector has been hit by a combination of factors, including competition from Amazon. AMZN, Consumer behavior has changed as the millennial generation comes of age, and retailers are now competing for dollars with smartphones, apps and electronics, as well as experiences such as travel and entertainment.
Mall traffic has dwindled in many places, pressuring the anchor tenants that relied on them for sales. The overall institutional leveraged loan default rate is expected to end at 2. In case you missed it: J. Penney, Gymboree and J. Fitch is now keeping a list of secondary loans of concern, identifying likely default candidates. The list includes Neiman Marcus Group Inc. Costco , when they raised their membership fees, said, "We're going to put most of this increase back into lowering pricing," which is what they have traditionally done, it's not necessarily a response here.
But if you are in a market -- and I live in Southern Florida, we have Publix. Pretty much that's all we have. There isn't a Trader Joe's near me.
If a Lidl or an Aldi comes in and it's conveniently located in the same realm as the Publix, Publix is going to have to go, "OK, my prices, I have to think about that. The other really important thing about this, and it's partly why these companies are moving now, is that we have a glut of available retail space.
So these companies -- and these are small stores, 12, to 20, square foot stores between the two chains -- they're going to snap up space in strip malls and malls that needs to be filled.
And that's going to be good for other businesses. Even some businesses that are doing well, but are being hurt by the fact that, maybe the Sears that anchored their strip mall went out of business. So there's going to be a ripple effect by all these stores coming in. Shen: Dan, I would like to add a little bit of detail on exactly how these companies operate, so that they're able to offer such competitive pricing.
Shen: Exactly. The smaller stores means less SKUs, which are essentially, the stock keeping units, or the code, assigned to each item. This allows the company to work directly with the food producers, and they avoid a lot of the costs of marketing, and also the premium that you get that you have to pay for the big branded products out there when you have these in-house offerings. Kline: It's also a varied merchandise.
When you go to Publix, obviously there's a certain amount of seasonal merchandise. When Valentine's Day is coming up, they're going to have a Valentine's Day section, and that switches to Mother's Day when it's appropriate. But both Aldi and Lidl do things like sell flip flops when it's going to be summer, in a market where that's appropriate.
And even their core food offering changes based on pricing. I've often joked that you can't go to Aldi knowing what you plan to make for dinner. You have to go to Aldi and see what they have, and then make your choices, which I have always found is a frustrating shopping experience.
But that's how they drive value. If their buyer looks at the chain and says, "I was going to bring in lamb this week, but the prices are too high," they may not have that on their shelves at a given time, and you sort of have to go with the flow, but it does mean you're always going to get a better value.
Shen: Wrapping up a little bit of our discussion, I want to provide a little bit of context here, for what exactly this market looks like, what Aldi and Lidl are diving into, and what the competition and the size and scale of this market is. For U. At this point, even with its 1, locations, reports I could find put Aldi share at single digits, low single digits at that.
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